Beemer (dr_tectonic) wrote,

I beat Dynasty Tactics 2 tonight! W00t!

On the last day of the seminar today, we did a (fictitious) case study about hurricane rebuilding: government agency develops reconstruction plan that involves letting some areas return to nature instead of being rebuilt; some local prefer a plan to put it all back the way it was. Given uncertainties in future storm damage, tax revenues lost, construction cost overruns, lawsuit being brought and possibly lost, and delays during a trial, what's the best plan to go with, which of these things matter, and how much would it be worth to know the outcomes before making your decision? We found the answers and got them right. It was pretty cool!

Also cool: I learned a graphical technique for Bayesian probability calculations that is (for me, at least) about eight million times easier to understand and get right than the standard formulas. Yay for new mental tools!

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