Beemer (dr_tectonic) wrote,
Beemer
dr_tectonic

Uncertainty

Just went to a neat seminar about project management and estimating how much time a project will take.

The interesting thing about it is that the hardest part of managing uncertainty is getting people to admit, even to themselves, that things are as likely to come in above the mean as they are under the mean. Once you've overcome that psychological barrier, thinking rationally about it is pretty easy, folks are just really loathe to acknowledge the possibility -- the likelihood, even -- that things will go wrong.
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